AI For Trading: Price Earnings Ratio (7)

市盈率(Price earnings ratio,即P/E ratio)也称“本益比”、“股价收益比率”或“市价盈利比率(简称市盈率)”。市盈率是最常用来评估股价水平是否合理的指标之一,由股价除以年度每股盈余(EPS)得出(以公司市值除以年度股东应占溢利亦可得出相同结果)。计算时,股价通常取最新收盘价,而EPS方面,若按已公布的上年度EPS计算,称为历史市盈率(historical P/E);计算预估市盈率所用的EPS预估值,一般采用市场平均预估(consensus estimates),即追踪公司业绩的机构收集多位分析师的预测所得到的预估平均值或中值。何谓合理的市盈率没有一定的准则。

概念

市盈率是投资者所必须掌握的一个重要财务指标,亦称本益比,是股票价格除以每股盈利的比率。市盈率反映了在每股盈利不变的情况下,当派息率为100%时及所得股息没有进行再投资的条件下,经过多少年我们的投资可以通天过股息全部收回。市盈率高好还是低好?一般情况下,一只股票市盈率越低,市价相对于股票的盈利能力越低,表明投资回收期越短,投资风险就越小,股票的投资价值就越大;反之则结论相反。
市盈率是某种股票每股市价与每股盈利的比率。市场广泛谈及市盈率通常指的是静态市盈率,通常用来作为比较不同价格的股票是否被高估或者低估的指标。

Price to Earnings Ratio

A term you’ll see often is price to earnings ratio, or PE ratio for short. This is the stock’s current market price divided by its most recently reported earnings per share (EPS).
您经常会看到的一个术语是市盈率,或简称市盈率。这是股票当前的市场价格除以最近报告的每股收益(EPS)

You can sort of interpret the PE ratio as how much the company is valued compared to how much money it made. It’s important to be careful about how we interpret a high or low PE ratio, because we can’t say whether a PE ratio is good or bad by looking at it in isolation. Let’s first look at where the price comes from.
您可以将PE比率解释为公司的估值与其产生的金额相比多少。重要的是要小心我们如何解释高或低的市盈率,因为我们无法通过单独看待它来判断市盈率是好还是坏,我们先来看看价格来自哪里。

where the price comes from?

This market price of a share is based on the collective estimates by investors of the company’s current equity plus its future earnings.
该股票的市场价格基于投资者对该公司当前股权加上其未来收益的集体估计

The future earnings are based on estimates of future cash flow, which are then adjusted to their present-day value, or Present Value (PV). This is getting a bit outside the scope of what you’ll need to know for this course, but the point we want you to remember is that the market price of a stock is based on both its current assets minus liabilities, but also estimates of the company’s future performance.
未来收益基于对未来现金流量的估计,然后将其调整为当前价值或现值(PV)。这有点超出了您需要了解的课程范围,但我们要让您记住的一点是,股票的市场价格是基于其当前资产减去负债

High or Low PE ?

Now coming back to the PE ratio. What does it mean to have a high PE ratio? A company may have low or negative earnings, but a high stock price. Why do you think that is? You may have heard of certain startups that are valued at billions of dollars, and yet have low earnings.
现在回到市盈率。拥有高市盈率意味着什么?公司的收益可能较低或为负,但股价较高。为什么你认为那是?您可能听说过某些创业公司价值数十亿美元,但收入却很低。

This is because investors expect potential for high earnings growth, based on the trajectory of past earnings growth. This also means that investors are estimating that the high stock price relative to earnings will be justified by high future earnings. On the other hand, it’s also possible that investor optimism towards the company’s future never materializes, in which case the stock may be overpriced.
这是因为投资者预计,基于过去盈利增长的轨迹,盈利增长潜力巨大。这也意味着投资者估计相对于收益的高股价将被高未来收益证明是合理的。另一方面,投资者对公司未来的乐观态度也可能永远不会实现,在这种情况下,股票价格可能过高。

Note also that a low PE ratio can also be due to different underlying reasons.
还要注意,低PE率也可能是由于不同的潜在原因。

An example of a company with a low PE ratio may be one that has high and stable earnings, but less expectations for future growth. Since the company may decide that its investors are better off receiving earnings as dividends instead of reinvesting earnings into the business, the earnings will be distributed as cash to shareholders. This also means that the stock price itself represents the value of the company excluding the cash that was already distributed to these shareholders. Again, keep in mind that a low PE ratio can also be a sign of something else.
低市盈率公司的一个例子可能是盈利高且稳定,但对未来增长的期望较低。由于公司可能会决定其投资者最好不要将收益作为股息而不是将收益再投资于业务,因此收益将作为现金分配给股东。这也意味着股票价格本身代表公司的价值,不包括已分配给这些股东的现金。同样,请记住,低市盈率也可能是其他因素的标志。

If a company is expected to face pressure from competitors or government regulation that reduce their expectations for future earnings, then investors may pay a lower price for each share, and that could also result in a lower PE ratio.
如果预计公司会面临来自竞争对手或政府监管的压力,这会降低他们对未来收益的预期,那么投资者可能会为每股支付更低的价格,这也可能导致较低的市盈率。

In practice, you’ll want to see how a company’s PE ratio compares to other similar companies in the same industry and same geographic region.
实际上,您需要了解公司的市盈率与同行业和同一地区的其他类似公司的比较情况。

You’ll see PE ratios again in later lessons, so for now, just remember that it’s one of many ways to take a snapshot of a company’s financial health.

在后面的课程中你会再次看到市盈率,所以现在,请记住,这是拍摄公司财务状况快照的众多方法之一。

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